Since Dec. 21, Bird Box has been viewed by over 45 million Netflix accounts (as I write this). Judging by some of the reviews I expected a movie with more gore. Perhaps because of that expectation, I was pleasantly surprised by how suspenseful it was. I also don’t expect to see a lot more properties like it anytime soon.
They did several things right with Bird Box. The key to a great monster movie is not to show the monster until you absolutely have to. They hit that target better than any horror movie I can recall. Also, the acting is great. John Malkovich and Sandra Bullock are only two actors but they make up a dozen reasons the movie did well. Though I predicted how the story would end, I thought it ended well enough.
The movie had some of the creepiness and imagination I enjoyed in last year’s Annihilation. However, don’t expect Bird Box to kick off a powerful uptick in apocalyptic movies. Unforgiven is a great movie, too, but it did not herald the return of a bunch of Westerns.
Bird Box was fun and profitable, but it’s a blip. Don’t expect another huge franchise to emerge from it. Here’s why:
The apocalyptic genre is in trouble
Bird Box is a successful movie, certainly. (Good on you, Netflix!) I could easily see this being made into an ongoing series like The Walking Dead. Unfortunately, that would probably beat the idea to death. There’s a trend afoot: people might enjoy a taste of
In recent months I’ve been made aware that the appetite for apocalyptic stories is dwindling. A fellow author who has been very successful in this genre is going back to the day job. I have several apocalyptic/dystopian epics* and I’ve seen sales decay over the past year. This Plague of Days is my most successful series but most of my IPs are taking me on a wander outside the apocalyptic genre as I hunt for my next hit.
Why is this happening?
The wax and wane of trends in consumer tastes
- Most books in the genre are too repetitive. I’ve noticed that even among the positive reviews of This Plague of Days, some reviewers mention that they love it because it defies expectations of the genre. The tropes are there but it’s not the same story over and over (I’m looking at you, Walking Dead.) Readers get tired of a steady diet of the same thing, even if they liked the taste in the beginning.
- Speaking of The Walking Dead, times are tough and, until recently, TWD didn’t offer much hope. The relentlessly grim and humorless tone is probably why viewership of the series has lessened. Times are tough right now and a real climate change apocalypse is here and/or coming (depending on where you live). With all the bad news, people want something to cheer them up or allow them to forget real-world dangers. Instead of confirming their suspicions that most of humanity sucks and deserves a grisly fate, readers want a different kind of escapism.
- Zombie and apocalyptic horror don’t necessarily have a huge fan base. It’s historically a vocal and devoted following but it’s not as big as we might hope. If it were as big as I’d like, there’d be as many
zompoc movies as there are mystery/suspense movies with titles with “Girl” in the title. (Note: Those aren’t girls. They’re women. Catch up!) - The popularity of genres has always waxed and waned naturally and it goes in cycles. Some of those cycles are long and others are short. There’s even a strange hypothesis out there that zombie and vampire stories are more or less popular depending on whether the Republicans or the Democrats control the US government. Hardboiled, as a genre, hit its peak with Mickey Spillane. Elmore Leonard kept the coma patient on life support with Chili Palmer. Westerns used to be huge but they really haven’t recovered from John Wayne’s death. In my lifetime, the vampire genre has been declared dead repeatedly. That alarm is always false. Vampires always come back. That might be the next trend. I’m counting on it, actually. I have a big vampire book in the works.
If you’re a zombie fan, what can you do?
- Give fuel to what you love. If you dig apocalyptic fiction, keep on buying it, reviewing it and tell your friends. The fanbase for any genre never completely goes away but if you want more of what you love, you have to double down and support your love.
- Give new writers a chance and if they delight you, please do spread the word.
- If you’re a creator, be excellent and also dare to be a little different. The joke in the horror writing community is that there are no horror writers anymore. They’re all called science fiction writers now. Consider crossing and mixing genres to find new readers. (For instance, the engine that fuels my latest zombie apocalypse (AFTER Life) is nanotechnology. So yes, it’s a sci-fi zombie trilogy.
What’s next?
That’s kind of the point: No one really knows. As my writing idol, William Goldman famously said, “Nobody knows anything…… Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.”
But what’s my educated guess?
My next book that is apocalypse-adjacent will be a big stand-alone book about a vampire cult. Meanwhile, I have two crime thrillers coming out in the next month. (Watch for The Night Man, releasing next week!)
I know there are writers trying to find underserved markets in which they enjoy writing. When writer Chris Fox wrote Writing to Market, he enthused about the need for more stories that take place in space. He is
Rather than follow his advice and do research to find their own unique niche, a lot of writers only sort of followed Chris’s advice. They wrote a ton of books in the genre that was his example. Boom! Space marines and covers featuring spaceship ass everywhere!
Some writers dream of making a big play and doing something new, forging ahead and breaking trail. They point to JK Rowling’s astonishing success with the Harry Potter books. It is indeed an amazing series. The next few years after Rowling hit it big, tons of knock-offs appeared that tried to follow the magic kid trend. Many mimics, but no duplicates. I actually have no objection to that. All those hungry Harry Potter fans naturally found something more to feed their new addiction to apprentice sorcerers. Nothing wrong with that as long as the attempt is not cynical. There is still joy and profit in smaller niches if those readers can be reached, their brains tickled and their hearts touched.
As for me, I have a lot of books in my editorial pipeline at Ex Parte Press. Are they written to market? I can only say that they are what I want to write. Will any of them hit big? No one knows and the market will decide. Hitting singles
Is this the end of the Apocalypse? I don’t think so but I’m not betting as big on it as I did in 2012. I don’t know where all the zombie readers went and what they’re enjoying as I write this. However, books are forever. Genres do come and go but they never fade away entirely. These are lean times for the genre but we’ll still be here when a wider readership decides their new tastes have become old and stale. We’ll be here when they’re ready to come back. In the meantime, we write and write and write.
*I’m Robert Chazz Chute, suspense writer