My daughter works in a bank and deals mostly with an older population. Many express annoyance at her bank’s new safety precautions and even tell her the COVID-19 pandemic is a hoax! Still! It got me thinking about what is and what’s to come. I hope these bold predictions are wrong, but here are my thoughts.
Warning: No guarantees on any predictions, no refunds for butthurt.
The Conflict
Hope: Everything works out better than epidemiologists expect and we’ll recover quickly.
Prediction #1: Before this is over, everyone will know someone who perished because of COVID-19.
Prediction #2: When the pandemic recedes, God will get the glory, not the scientists who come up with the vaccine. Though a few outliers will still roll the dice on herd immunity, most anti-vaxxers will go curiously silent for a while as they line up for the shot.
Corruption
Observation: People with a lot of money, power, and influence got a heads-up about how bad this would be and dumped their stocks for profit while they told us everything was peachy.
Prediction#1: They will never be punished.
Prediction #2: Those in power will tell us to forget it and stop living in the past. Many people with no power will shrug it off and let it go because (a) they’re worshipful of successful sociopaths, (b) hope to become successful sociopaths, or (c) are too busy trying to put food on the table to concern themselves with what feels too far beyond their control.
We’ve been gaslit.
Hope: This crisis will challenge us to reform our healthcare systems so universal healthcare is accepted everywhere. We’ve been fighting the wrong wars. Illnesses of all kinds are definitely coming for you. Terrorists? Far less so.
Prediction: Since some countries with universal healthcare suffered badly during the pandemic for reasons unrelated to offering universal healthcare, the United States will continue without Medicare for all.
Parallel: “We can’t have evil socialism because of Venezuela.” It would make more sense to say, “We can expand our mixed economy to include altruistic socialist values because no one loses their home to medical debt in all other First World nations. We don’t have pure capitalism but even if we did, that model alone doesn’t succeed at everything it’s supposed to do.”
Where the Money Goes
Hope: Cruise ships are recognized for the Petri dishes they are and would-be passengers will fear they’ll be trapped on them. These gigantic ships will become symbols of a bygone era, like airships.
Prediction #1: Attempts will be made to save the cruise ship industry and millions of dollars that could have been funneled to better causes will go to companies that don’t even pay taxes in the U.S.
Prediction #2: Sure, they’re fun, but the cruise ship industry will still fail because so few people will be able to afford that fun vacation during the Depression.
The Economy
Prediction 1: Oh, did I not mention a Depression? The very rich will stay rich and get richer by buying up depleted assets at a low price. The middle class will shrink even further.
Prediction #2: If Trump loses, it will take a generation to go back to systemic norms.
Prediction #3: If Trump wins, it will take two generations for the United States to recover, if they do.
Prediction #4: As the pendulum swings back and the revolution comes, Bernie will be long gone. AOC will lead the new charge. Half of America will still push back, at least until they receive universal health care. Eventually, privately and among close friends, even those opposed will admit universal care costs less, has better outcomes for more people and no one need suffer medical bankruptcy. They’ll be glad they don’t have to fight with an insurance company and pay exorbitant premiums and copays to receive the care they need. (No worries, though. They can still hate the people who fought for them for other reasons.)
The 2020 Election
Curse: Donald Trump will take reelection (not win reelection) through a combination of gerrymandering, Russian assistance, voter suppression, suppression of voter turnout via fear of the pandemic, COVID-19 suppression of the Democratic Party’s campaign, media failures and Joe Biden’s inability to reach and win over voters from the Trump cult.
Prediction: Everyone but those responsible will be blamed and shamed. We’ll be saying, “If we had all just had mail-in ballots and if we had used them…”
Our Screens
Prediction #1: Vido game industry? Wheeeeeeeee!
Prediction #2: Hollywood? Shit.
Learned Helplessness
Prediction #1: Too many will break isolation too soon. Instead of shutting everything down for a whole year plus, there will be rolling lockdowns.
Prediction #2: Despair goes up. Suicides go up. No one without power ever trusts the system again.
Prediction #3: After 2016, many people were inspired to become politically active. With the next election failure, that hope for change will be squashed. Many will give up and retreat from that battlefield to focus on family, community, and distractions. The motto of learned helplessness is “They’re gonna do what they’re gonna do.”
The Business Spiral
Prediction #1: Though many will be sacrificed in the name of bringing back the economy, the stock market will not bounce back because the economy is still working on the same premise. The stock market is largely irrelevant to most working people. People may go back to work but they’ll spend less, travel less, go out less. We will withdraw monetarily and socially.
Prediction #2: Many movie theaters, comedy clubs, and arenas will not survive 2020. Enough people will stay away for fear of contagion that business models that rely on public gatherings will fail. Streaming services will survive but will produce less content. We’ll continue to see the world through the lens of our phones: disappointment, anger, and sadness. Trust on the macro and micro scale will plummet as many follow the leader on the swing toward an “every person for themselves” mentality.
The Cull and the Exodus
Prediction #1: Far more people will die because of COVID-19 than might have, had the world been better prepared. Prioritizing military and geopolitical objectives over science, we’ve been fighting the wrong war.
Prediction #2: Many people will die because they will avoid hospitals and doctors’ offices for the next year or more.
Prediction #3: Feeling abandoned, suffering PTSD, and angry, some doctors and nurses will leave the profession.
Prediction #4: Fewer people will opt to enter the health profession. We will all suffer for it.
The Cultural Shift
Prediction #1: In the United States, the economy will be prioritized over lives in the name of long-term thinking and pragmatism. It’s actually cruel short-term thinking. All those dead grandparents still won’t save the economy.
Prediction #2: I hope you like your house and where you live because you won’t be able to sell it for a very long time. I sincerely hope you don’t lose it. Homeownership will slide further out of reach of younger generations. We will become nations of renters to fewer and fewer landlords.
Prediction #3: A new era of urban hippie will be born where people plant gardens to ensure they’ll have food when they need it. This movement will not convey the excitement of the doomer and prepper fringe because, having survived the pandemic, everyone will appreciate how grim the apocalypse is. This new group will focus on pragmatism and food security rather than more guns and escapist glee.
Prediction #4: A smaller group will embrace back-to-the-land isolation where they leave the cities and attempt to form communes. Most of the communes will fail as they’ve failed before. Some individuals who would otherwise become urban accountants will end up in remote locations in cedar A-frames chopping their own wood.
Prediction #5: Continuing to “shelter at home” will have an impact on jobs and daily routines. With trust in the healthcare falling and comorbidities adding to the death tally from COVID-19, expect a renewed focus on clean eating and fitness. It won’t be for vanity but for longevity and the ability to carry heavy things. We’ll be too afraid to return to the gym at first. Then we won’t be able to afford a gym. We’ll work out more where we live, clean more and strive to be less susceptible to disease. We will own fewer things and have less to dust, take up less square footage and drive less.
Prediction #6: Handshakes are dead. Physical distancing will continue as social ties get closer through electronic media. When kids are asked what they want to be when they grow up, part of their calculation will be the goal of working safely from home instead of working with the public.
Moods by Generation
Prediction #1: Got young kids? If you can buy stock in hand sanitizer, that’s a good bet for now and for the rest of our lives. We’re growing a generation of germaphobes.
Prediction #2: Older people aren’t the only ones who will die or suffer lasting effects of this pandemic. The elderly will be more financially insecure, food insecure and lonely.
The Next Pandemic Emergency
Prediction #1: Everyone will say that COVID-19 will change everything, but historically our collective memory is short. By the end of 2021, once all the COVID memorials are done, we’ll be told this pandemic was a blip. We will forget these harsh lessons about our fragile supply chains.
Prediction #2: Eagerness will trump caution. The desire to rush everything back to normal too quickly will prolong the crisis. Despite terrible outcomes, we will not be prepared for the next pandemic.
Prediction #3: “Back to normal” will continue to keep more of us in the category of what sociologists call “at risk.”
The Legacy of DJT
Prediction #1: Donald J. Trump has ruined the use of the word trump. It brings up the image of the noun, not the verb.
Prediction #2: Donald J. Trump has devalued the esteem for the office of POTUS. That’s not all bad. The office of President has received too much reverence, anyway. In Canada, we say, “the prime minister.” In America, many citizens say, “my president.” See how that subtly shifts the tone? Canadians are generally less attached to the goobers in office, possibly because our election cycles are done in a month instead of dragging on for years, grinding into our collective psyche.
Your Reaction
Prediction #1: Somebody will hate me for indulging in the “Orange Man bad” narrative. If that’s you, I won’t hate you back, but I will ask you to check back in four years and tell me how you feel then, assuming either of us survive, of course.
Prediction #2: Optimists will also be annoyed with this post. Maybe that will make cynics feel good. I take no joy in any of this. I want the economy to bounce back and for everybody to be well and happy.
Observation: Things won’t improve for average working people until we all prioritize making things better for them. Although anyone reading this post is closer to becoming homeless than they are to becoming wealthy, many lack the political will to face these challenges head-on.
Suggestions and Solutions?
Hey, man. I see what I see but to change it? I don’t know. Can empathy be taught? I just write science fiction. How much do I know for sure? Not much. I’m an educated fool with few practical skills. All I can say is:
1. Elections have consequences. Choose carefully. Overcome my dire predictions to remain engaged.
2. Believe science. Encourage improved education and steer more young people toward the sciences, logic, and healthy skepticism.
3. Cynicism only sounds smart. Misanthropy is often funny. However, these are not effective survival strategies. Humans are social animals and we need each other (socially, economically, every damn way.) We wouldn’t have climbed down from the trees and evolved without collective action for the common good. The winner-takes-all attitude creates to many losers and is unsustainable. Try kindness.
4. Many have forgotten our lessons from kindergarten. We are here to help each other, to learn, to have fun, to live.