I’m happy to be working on a thriller about vigilante justice. The apocalyptic genre has much cooled. This Plague of Days provides many solid tips for doomsday preppers, but fewer readers are inclined to read end-of-the-world stories when they fear they’re about to actually experience them. Citizen Second Class seems closer to where we’re now headed.
President-elect Trump is threatening 25% tariffs on America’s principal trading partners, Canada, China, and Mexico. Every economist is certain that it will increase prices, slow the global economy, and hurt poor people most. Today, I’m hearing several commentators saying he doesn’t mean it. It’s supposedly an opening negotiation tactic, but how can they know? They’re giving him too much credit. Such tactics suggest there’s a strategy and foresight, but Trump’s history is chaotic. He tends to get his opinion from whoever last spoke to him. Destruction of the economy and punishment of the poor is definitely on the table.
While immunologists worry about H1N1 jumping species to humans, RFK wants to freeze immunization research and remove mandates for common vaccines (which is absolutely not how herd immunity works). He thinks the solution to depression is simply to send the afflicted to farms where they have no access to processed food. While Biden wants to get weight-loss drugs covered by insurance, Kennedy wants to ban them. Amid a long-standing epidemic of dangerous obesity and diabetes, RFK says the answer is simply to eat healthy foods. Gee, why didn’t we think of that? For a former heroin addict, he sure doesn’t understand addiction.
Recently, Bill Maher hosted a Stanford-educated doctor who claims med school taught her nothing valuable and that eliminating processed foods is the answer to all metabolic problems. So, “Doctor,” aside from the problematic classism in that stance, you’re telling me that RFK has all the answers, and Trump supporters everywhere will breathe a sigh of relief when you take away all their hamberders?
There was one powerful person who advocated healthy eating, and they condemned her as a communist and a fascist. Remember? Her name was Michelle Obama.
Everything is unprecedented until it’s not.
This post is not a prediction. This is a warning.
Another commentator suggests that all the stuff about tariffs will prove a distraction from Trump’s real goals. Namely, to persecute minorities, transgender people, and the undocumented. Rather than deport undocumented immigrants, the real money may be in the for-profit prison industry as these people, and the unhoused, are put in camps.Trump even plans to eliminate birthright citizenship. A lot of potential for collateral damage there, even among many of those who voted for the Trump presidency.If he goes through with his stated intentions, expect a rise in crime, stress, chaos, and a recession. A lot of people will definitely get hurt. I can’t say how many will be killed due to malice and recklessness.
I write novels. It’s fiction, but I extrapolate from the state of the world.Citizen Second Class, for instance, relied heavily on the premise that the ultra-rich elite would imprison, disenfranchise, and exploit lower classes. In a new society based on classism, racism, and sexism, the over-privileged Illuminati would enter fortified conclaves to keep the starving masses outside their walls. It was supposed to entertain and provoke thought. It wasn’t supposed to be a prediction or prescription.
So, what’s next?
I’ve never heard leftists speak the way some did after Kamala Harris failed to win the White House. I ran across a vocal minority on social media who had become more interested in self-defense, namely arming up. Others sound like the preppers and doomers I’ve written about in This Plague of Days. At the very least, those who could are stocking up on foodstuffs in anticipation of a rise in the cost of living.
I suspect many people will withdraw from political action if they have that privilege. Some people who were politically active will find solace in sports, music, and whatever else soothes them. Maybe more people will read again, much like they did during the height of the pandemic. Others will be spurred to reorganize to meet the moment when the mid-terms and the next presidential election arrive.
It is silly to say, “He didn’t do it last time, so he won’t this time.” Last time, he had a few people holding him back. Last time, the Supreme Court didn’t make him a king who could do no wrong. This time, he’s surrounded by hateful, sycophantic nuts.
Another favorite: “I like him because he says what he means. Now let me bend your ear on why he doesn’t really mean the bad stuff.” Trump’s stated intentions for changes in tax policy, immigration, deportation, foreign policy, and tariffs comprise a perfect storm of humanitarian and economic disaster.
Petulance is not a policy. It’s the basis for recrimination for his grievances, and it won’t help his constituency. He’s not even interested in serving all Americans.I don’t have to extrapolate into the future to say that. We need only look at his history.
If you are happy Donald Trump was elected, no worries for you. No one listens to my warnings, anyway. What’s making some of his supporters nervous are the voices of liberals saying, “Okay, you won. Now we’ll see if you’ll enjoy what you voted for. You assumed he’d only come for us. Wait. We’ll see how you feel when the melon felon affects you.”
I take no pleasure in this. I prefer disasters described in fiction. It seems that if you want real positive, progressive change, it’s up to the accelerationists now.
My daughter works in a bank and deals mostly with an older population. Many express annoyance at her bank’s new safety precautions and even tell her the COVID-19 pandemic is a hoax! Still! It got me thinking about what is and what’s to come. I hope these bold predictions are wrong, but here are my thoughts.
Warning: No guarantees on any predictions, no refunds for butthurt.
The Conflict
Hope: Everything works out better than epidemiologists expect and we’ll recover quickly. Prediction #1: Before this is over, everyone will know someone who perished because of COVID-19. Prediction #2: When the pandemic recedes, God will get the glory, not the scientists who come up with the vaccine. Though a few outliers will still roll the dice on herd immunity, most anti-vaxxers will go curiously silent for a while as they line up for the shot.
Corruption
Observation: People with a lot of money, power, and influence got a heads-up about how bad this would be and dumped their stocks for profit while they told us everything was peachy. Prediction#1: They will never be punished. Prediction #2: Those in power will tell us to forget it and stop living in the past. Many people with no power will shrug it off and let it go because (a) they’re worshipful of successful sociopaths, (b) hope to become successful sociopaths, or (c) are too busy trying to put food on the table to concern themselves with what feels too far beyond their control.
We’ve been gaslit.
Hope: This crisis will challenge us to reform our healthcare systems so universal healthcare is accepted everywhere. We’ve been fighting the wrong wars. Illnesses of all kinds are definitely coming for you. Terrorists? Far less so. Prediction: Since some countries with universal healthcare suffered badly during the pandemic for reasons unrelated to offering universal healthcare, the United States will continue without Medicare for all. Parallel: “We can’t have evil socialism because of Venezuela.” It would make more sense to say, “We can expand our mixed economy to include altruistic socialist values because no one loses their home to medical debt in all other First World nations. We don’t have pure capitalism but even if we did, that model alone doesn’t succeed at everything it’s supposed to do.”
Where the Money Goes
Hope: Cruise ships are recognized for the Petri dishes they are and would-be passengers will fear they’ll be trapped on them. These gigantic ships will become symbols of a bygone era, like airships. Prediction #1: Attempts will be made to save the cruise ship industry and millions of dollars that could have been funneled to better causes will go to companies that don’t even pay taxes in the U.S. Prediction #2: Sure, they’re fun, but the cruise ship industry will still fail because so few people will be able to afford that fun vacation during the Depression.
The Economy
Prediction 1: Oh, did I not mention a Depression? The very rich will stay rich and get richer by buying up depleted assets at a low price. The middle class will shrink even further. Prediction #2: If Trump loses, it will take a generation to go back to systemic norms. Prediction #3: If Trump wins, it will take two generations for the United States to recover, if they do. Prediction #4: As the pendulum swings back and the revolution comes, Bernie will be long gone. AOC will lead the new charge. Half of America will still push back, at least until they receive universal health care. Eventually, privately and among close friends, even those opposed will admit universal care costs less, has better outcomes for more people and no one need suffer medical bankruptcy. They’ll be glad they don’t have to fight with an insurance company and pay exorbitant premiums and copays to receive the care they need. (No worries, though. They can still hate the people who fought for them for other reasons.)
The 2020 Election
Curse: Donald Trump will take reelection (not win reelection) through a combination of gerrymandering, Russian assistance, voter suppression, suppression of voter turnout via fear of the pandemic, COVID-19 suppression of the Democratic Party’s campaign, media failures and Joe Biden’s inability to reach and win over voters from the Trump cult. Prediction: Everyone but those responsible will be blamed and shamed. We’ll be saying, “If we had all just had mail-in ballots and if we had used them…”
Our Screens
Prediction #1: Vido game industry? Wheeeeeeeee! Prediction #2: Hollywood? Shit.
Learned Helplessness
Prediction #1: Too many will break isolation too soon. Instead of shutting everything down for a whole year plus, there will be rolling lockdowns. Prediction #2: Despair goes up. Suicides go up. No one without power ever trusts the system again. Prediction #3: After 2016, many people were inspired to become politically active. With the next election failure, that hope for change will be squashed. Many will give up and retreat from that battlefield to focus on family, community, and distractions. The motto of learned helplessness is “They’re gonna do what they’re gonna do.”
The Business Spiral
Prediction #1: Though many will be sacrificed in the name of bringing back the economy, the stock market will not bounce back because the economy is still working on the same premise. The stock market is largely irrelevant to most working people. People may go back to work but they’ll spend less, travel less, go out less. We will withdraw monetarily and socially. Prediction #2: Many movie theaters, comedy clubs, and arenas will not survive 2020. Enough people will stay away for fear of contagion that business models that rely on public gatherings will fail. Streaming services will survive but will produce less content. We’ll continue to see the world through the lens of our phones: disappointment, anger, and sadness. Trust on the macro and micro scale will plummet as many follow the leader on the swing toward an “every person for themselves” mentality.
The Cull and the Exodus
Prediction #1: Far more people will die because of COVID-19 than might have, had the world been better prepared. Prioritizing military and geopolitical objectives over science, we’ve been fighting the wrong war. Prediction #2: Many people will die because they will avoid hospitals and doctors’ offices for the next year or more. Prediction #3: Feeling abandoned, suffering PTSD, and angry, some doctors and nurses will leave the profession. Prediction #4: Fewer people will opt to enter the health profession. We will all suffer for it.
The Cultural Shift
Prediction #1: In the United States, the economy will be prioritized over lives in the name of long-term thinking and pragmatism. It’s actually cruel short-term thinking. All those dead grandparents still won’t save the economy. Prediction #2: I hope you like your house and where you live because you won’t be able to sell it for a very long time. I sincerely hope you don’t lose it. Homeownership will slide further out of reach of younger generations. We will become nations of renters to fewer and fewer landlords. Prediction #3: A new era of urban hippie will be born where people plant gardens to ensure they’ll have food when they need it. This movement will not convey the excitement of the doomer and prepper fringe because, having survived the pandemic, everyone will appreciate how grim the apocalypse is. This new group will focus on pragmatism and food security rather than more guns and escapist glee. Prediction #4: A smaller group will embrace back-to-the-land isolation where they leave the cities and attempt to form communes. Most of the communes will fail as they’ve failed before. Some individuals who would otherwise become urban accountants will end up in remote locations in cedar A-frames chopping their own wood. Prediction #5: Continuing to “shelter at home” will have an impact on jobs and daily routines. With trust in the healthcare falling and comorbidities adding to the death tally from COVID-19, expect a renewed focus on clean eating and fitness. It won’t be for vanity but for longevity and the ability to carry heavy things. We’ll be too afraid to return to the gym at first. Then we won’t be able to afford a gym. We’ll work out more where we live, clean more and strive to be less susceptible to disease. We will own fewer things and have less to dust, take up less square footage and drive less. Prediction #6: Handshakes are dead. Physical distancing will continue as social ties get closer through electronic media. When kids are asked what they want to be when they grow up, part of their calculation will be the goal of working safely from home instead of working with the public.
Moods by Generation
Prediction #1: Got young kids? If you can buy stock in hand sanitizer, that’s a good bet for now and for the rest of our lives. We’re growing a generation of germaphobes. Prediction #2: Older people aren’t the only ones who will die or suffer lasting effects of this pandemic. The elderly will be more financially insecure, food insecure and lonely.
The Next Pandemic Emergency
Prediction #1: Everyone will say that COVID-19 will change everything, but historically our collective memory is short. By the end of 2021, once all the COVID memorials are done, we’ll be told this pandemic was a blip. We will forget these harsh lessons about our fragile supply chains. Prediction #2: Eagerness will trump caution. The desire to rush everything back to normal too quickly will prolong the crisis. Despite terrible outcomes, we will not be prepared for the next pandemic. Prediction #3: “Back to normal” will continue to keep more of us in the category of what sociologists call “at risk.”
The Legacy of DJT
Prediction #1: Donald J. Trump has ruined the use of the word trump. It brings up the image of the noun, not the verb. Prediction #2: Donald J. Trump has devalued the esteem for the office of POTUS. That’s not all bad. The office of President has received too much reverence, anyway. In Canada, we say, “the prime minister.” In America, many citizens say, “my president.” See how that subtly shifts the tone? Canadians are generally less attached to the goobers in office, possibly because our election cycles are done in a month instead of dragging on for years, grinding into our collective psyche.
Your Reaction
Prediction #1: Somebody will hate me for indulging in the “Orange Man bad” narrative. If that’s you, I won’t hate you back, but I will ask you to check back in four years and tell me how you feel then, assuming either of us survive, of course. Prediction #2: Optimists will also be annoyed with this post. Maybe that will make cynics feel good. I take no joy in any of this. I want the economy to bounce back and for everybody to be well and happy. Observation: Things won’t improve for average working people until we all prioritize making things better for them. Although anyone reading this post is closer to becoming homeless than they are to becoming wealthy, many lack the political will to face these challenges head-on.
Suggestions and Solutions?
Hey, man. I see what I see but to change it? I don’t know. Can empathy be taught? I just write science fiction. How much do I know for sure? Not much. I’m an educated fool with few practical skills. All I can say is:
1. Elections have consequences. Choose carefully. Overcome my dire predictions to remain engaged.
2. Believe science. Encourage improved education and steer more young people toward the sciences, logic, and healthy skepticism.
3. Cynicism only sounds smart. Misanthropy is often funny. However, these are not effective survival strategies. Humans are social animals and we need each other (socially, economically, every damn way.) We wouldn’t have climbed down from the trees and evolved without collective action for the common good. The winner-takes-all attitude creates to many losers and is unsustainable. Try kindness.
4. Many have forgotten our lessons from kindergarten. We are here to help each other, to learn, to have fun, to live.
We’ve only got a few months left in 2016. I was about to say that I can’t wait for this year to be over, but 2017 isn’t any more promising. Tragic events, paranoia and hysteria aren’t confined by the calendar. We create those things by the things we think and say and do. Still, 2016 feels like a pivotal year. When we look back, we’re going to say, this was one year that sucked hard. Our kids will ask, what did you do? How did you vote? This is our collective, “What did you do during the war, daddy?” moment.
A bunch of people in the States decided that going to a public bathroom was suddenly a huge risk. The hysteria around who got to go to which bathroom was a bridge too far for me. The fact that slimy Ted Cruz was the closest alternative to Trump was a disgrace. Fear, it seems, is the only policy the Right has to offer. They’re quick to say what they hate but have no positive policy suggestions. They don’t want to govern. They want to obstruct, as we say in Canada, peace, order and good government.
A lot of people talk tough, but it seems that those who talk toughest are the most fearful. Shit your pants isn’t a foreign policy. You can’t defeat ISIS by denying immigration to victims of ISIS. A plethora of problems went from simmer to boil this year and, at the root of it all, is a lack of compassion. We’re too eager to make enemies and we undervalue our friends. (Like friends in NATO, for instance.)
My books are not overtly political. I write suspenseful fiction. I don’t set out to piss anybody off. My stories entertain and occasionally, if it serves the story, I will reference real world events. I wish we had respected writers rising to lead. I so miss Kurt Vonnegut. I’m sure he’d have a lot to say right now. Likewise comedians like Bill Hicks and George Carlin. I wish Jon Stewart was still helming The Daily Show so we’d have more trenchant commentary that entertained as well as informed. Jon Oliver is doing a good job, at least.
It’s past time I took off my fiction hat on this topic. I was a journalist long before I was a novelist. However, I’m not writing today in either of those capacities. I’m writing as a citizen of the planet. Many writer friends won’t say anything political for fear of offending readers. I respect their choice but, to me, recognizing the threat to the world is more important than a few lost book sales. Maybe my voice adds nothing to the din but staying silent feels wrong.
Trump is a racist. White supremacists love him. I cringe every time he says something about what’s good for, “the Blacks.” A guy who didn’t want African Americans in his apartment buildings isn’t out to serve minority communities. Remember, this is the same guy who said he’d never employ a black accountant because they’re lazy. Stop. Just stop the hateful drivel.
He’s also a dangerous narcissist who knows too little about governing. With his history, he’s a terrible candidate and everybody knows it. (Check out Trumpcast if you need further convincing.) Barring an huge implosion on the Left, he can’t win. He can do a lot of damage on the way out of his publicity stunt and his most devout followers will be sore losers. Hillary is not a great candidate. She has many flaws but she’s far better than the orange alternative.
The outrage here is that, though Paul Ryan has admitted Trump’s statements (with regard to the Mexican American judge) were racist, the Speaker of the House still supports Trump. Remember when John McCain’s campaign slogan was, “Country first”? The bulk of the Republican establishment is putting party before country. Trump would be a disastrous president. He’s already savaged the Republican brand for years to come.
People say they like that Trump means what he says. Unless he says something outrageous, racist, Putin-loving, disrespectful or downright dumb. Then he doesn’t mean it. The guy who is famous for, “You’re fired!” is going to employ everybody…somehow. But he’s not the people’s billionaire. If you don’t get a job during the Trump presidency, he’ll blame you and call you a loser.
Plus, he’ll build a wall instead of funding schools or fighting cancer. He claims he would build up a military that’s already the largest and best in the world by far. He’s reckless with NATO and has demonstrated eagerness to use nuclear weapons. He’s convinced some people that Obama is a secret Kenyan and has a terrible record with women and various minorities. He’s petty and thin-skinned. He sues people and is sued constantly. He doesn’t care for freedom of speech, especially when anyone dares to criticize him for anything.
Trump is the Fear Monger in Chief. It would be bad for the United States and the world if he becomes Commander in Chief. I can’t vote against him. I’m in Canada. However, the damage he would do to America and the world would certainly affect me. Few of us would be untouched by his incompetence. I encourage all my American friends: you don’t have to like Hillary Clinton but please vote against Donald J. Trump. He’s a con man and an embarrassment to your great country.
Trump would not make America great again. Trump is clown shoes. Pure clown shoes. The world is watching and we’re holding our breath.
Note to Hillary Clinton: Give straight answers. Stop sounding so damn cautious and lawyerly. Don’t fuck this up. The social democratic revolution in politics I hoped for was Bernie’s vision but I’ll still be relieved when you’re in and Trump is out.
Then, Madame President, maybe you can start working on repairing the damage Clown Shoes has already done.
~ We now return to our regularly scheduled apolitical nonsense.
